Sunday, November 14, 2010

A Few Minor Changes in the Top 5, but Auburn Stays on Top

Things won't get any easier for the Tigers. After a week off, it's off to Tuscaloosa to tangle with #13 Alabama, and then to Atlanta for a rematch with the #18 Gamecocks.

Conference Rankings
1.Southeastern
.56692
2.Big 12
.55912
3.
Big Ten
.55517
4.
Pacific-10
.53148
5.
Atlantic Coast
.49713
6.
Big East
.49094
7.
Mountain West
.48172
8.
Western Athletic
.47535
9.
USA.46545
10.
Mid-American
.39324
11.
Sun Belt
.38754

The Big East has now passed the Mountain West. This is the worst year ever for the Big East, and the 3rd best ever for the MWC, yet still there are many who buy the MWC hype and think they deserve a BCS automatic bid.


Now, for S's and G's....

If the season ended today, and the BCS standings mirrored my rankings, here would be the BCS bowl selection process.

Automatic qualifiers:
  • Auburn (SEC, #1, BCS Championship Game)
  • Oregon (Pac-10, #2, BCS Championship Game)
  • Texas Christian
  • Nebraska (Big 12, Fiesta Bowl)
  • Michigan State (Big Ten, Rose Bowl)
  • Virginia Tech (ACC, Orange Bowl)
  • Pittsburgh (Big East)
At-large teams:
  • Louisiana State
  • Boise State
  • Oklahoma State
  • Wisconsin
  • Stanford
  • Ohio State
  • Missouri
  • Alabama
  • Nevada
The Sugar Bowl picks first after losing its tie-in, Auburn, to the BCSCG. They likely would select LSU. Alabama would then be eliminated from the at-large pool because the SEC now would have two schools in the BCS.

The Rose Bowl picks second after losing one of its tie-ins, Oregon, to the BCSCG. Due to the current specifics of the Rose Bowl's contract with the BCS, they would be required to select the highest-rated team from a non-automatic qualifying conference. The Rose Bowl would select TCU.

The final selection round for the 2011 games is Sugar, Orange, then Fiesta.

My guess is that the Sugar Bowl would pass over Boise State and Oklahoma State and choose Wisconsin. This would eliminate Ohio State from the at-large pool.

The Orange Bowl is next, and they have to pick from Boise State, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Missouri, Pittsburgh, and Nevada (who is barely worth mentioning at this point). Boise State would be an attractive choice since they're undefeated, but a rematch with Virginia Tech might not be a good idea as far as concerns over television ratings are concerned. My guess is that Oklahoma State gets the nod here.

The Fiesta Bowl then must take automatic qualifier Pittsburgh.

The matchups end up looking this way:
  • Rose Bowl: Michigan State vs. Texas Christian
  • Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs. Pittsburgh
  • Sugar Bowl: Louisiana State vs. Wisconsin
  • Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State
  • BCS Championship Game: Auburn vs. Oregon


Oregon passes TCU this week. The difference was that Utah lost in South Bend, and Stanford won in Tempe. Had it been the other way around, the Frogs would have held more tightly to the #2 spot.

The other shake-up in the top five is Nebraska and LSU. Nebraska's quality win over Oklahoma State (who won in Austin last night) will keep paying off unless the Pokes lose to the Sooners Thanksgiving weekend (or to the Jayhawks next week).
  1. Auburn
  2. Oregon
  3. Texas Christian
  4. Nebraska
  5. Louisiana State
  6. Boise State
  7. Michigan State
  8. Oklahoma State
  9. Wisconsin
  10. Stanford
  11. Ohio State
  12. Missouri
  13. Alabama
  14. Nevada
  15. Arkansas
  16. Oklahoma
  17. Iowa
  18. South Carolina
  19. Utah
  20. Mississippi State
  21. Hawaii
  22. Southern California
  23. Arizona
  24. Miami (Florida)
  25. Florida State
  26. Michigan
  27. North Carolina State
  28. Northern Illinois
  29. Temple
  30. Florida
  31. West Virginia
  32. Texas A&M
  33. East Carolina
  34. Central Florida
  35. Maryland
  36. Navy
  37. Kansas State
  38. Tulsa
  39. San Diego State
  40. Penn State
  41. Southern Mississippi
  42. Air Force
  43. North Carolina
  44. Northwestern
  45. Baylor
  46. Virginia Tech
  47. South Florida
  48. Notre Dame
  49. Syracuse
  50. Fresno State
  51. Ohio
  52. Texas Tech
  53. Toledo
  54. Pittsburgh
  55. Illinois
  56. Clemson
  57. Brigham Young
  58. Miami (Ohio)
  59. Army
  60. Texas
  61. UCLA
  62. Kentucky
  63. California
  64. Southern Methodist
  65. Oregon State
  66. Connecticut
  67. Iowa State
  68. Troy
  69. Boston College
  70. Washington
  71. Georgia
  72. Colorado
  73. Georgia Tech
  74. Houston
  75. Marshall
  76. Louisville
  77. Tennessee
  78. Texas-El Paso
  79. Florida International
  80. Rutgers
  81. Purdue
  82. Florida Atlantic
  83. Louisiana Tech
  84. Louisiana-Monroe
  85. Indiana
  86. Utah State
  87. Idaho
  88. Arkansas State
  89. Arizona State
  90. Cincinnati
  91. Alabama-Birmingham
  92. Tulane
  93. Colorado State
  94. Kent State
  95. Western Michigan
  96. Duke
  97. Virginia
  98. Vanderbilt
  99. Mississippi
  100. Nevada-Las Vegas
  101. North Texas
  102. Memphis
  103. Washington State
  104. Rice
  105. Wake Forest
  106. Central Michigan
  107. Bowling Green
  108. Wyoming
  109. Western Kentucky
  110. Louisiana-Lafayette
  111. New Mexico State
  112. Middle Tennessee State
  113. Kansas
  114. Buffalo
  115. Minnesota
  116. New Mexico
  117. Eastern Michigan
  118. Ball State
  119. San José State
  120. Akron

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

If All Goes Wrong With Auburn, LSU is #1

The Corndogs are pulling for the NCAA to expedite the process.




































Well, I got curious. I asked, What if Auburn had to forfeit all their victories this year?

I plugged my formula in, and here's what I got:
  1. Louisiana State
  2. Texas Christian
  3. Oregon
  4. Nebraska
  5. Boise State
  6. Michigan State
  7. Oklahoma State
  8. Iowa
  9. Stanford
  10. Wisconsin
  11. Arkansas
  12. Alabama
  13. Mississippi State
  14. Ohio State
  15. Missouri
  16. Utah
  17. Oklahoma
  18. Nevada
  19. Arizona
  20. South Carolina
  21. Florida
  22. Central Florida
  23. Kansas State
  24. Hawaii
  25. North Carolina
  26. Baylor
  27. Miami (Florida)
  28. Penn State
  29. North Carolina State
  30. Temple
  31. Michigan
  32. San Diego State
  33. Southern California
  34. Florida State
  35. Northern Illinois
  36. Fresno State
  37. Illinois
  38. Air Force
  39. Toledo
  40. East Carolina
  41. Pittsburgh
  42. Clemson
  43. Navy
  44. Maryland
  45. Tulsa
  46. Texas Tech
  47. West Virginia
  48. Oregon State
  49. Texas A&M
  50. Ohio
  51. Southern Mississippi
  52. Northwestern
  53. Iowa State
  54. Troy
  55. Virginia Tech
  56. Texas
  57. South Florida
  58. Syracuse
  59. Kentucky
  60. UCLA
  61. Notre Dame
  62. California
  63. Miami (Ohio)
  64. Houston
  65. Georgia Tech
  66. Southern Methodist
  67. Louisville
  68. Georgia
  69. Brigham Young
  70. Army
  71. Washington
  72. Arkansas State
  73. Texas-El Paso
  74. Louisiana-Monroe
  75. Connecticut
  76. Rutgers
  77. Boston College
  78. Purdue
  79. Colorado
  80. Indiana
  81. Marshall
  82. Tennessee
  83. Alabama-Birmingham
  84. Cincinnati
  85. Idaho
  86. Arizona State
  87. Colorado State
  88. Florida Atlantic
  89. Kent State
  90. Florida International
  91. Louisiana Tech
  92. Mississippi
  93. Utah State
  94. Duke
  95. Vanderbilt
  96. Virginia
  97. Tulane
  98. Memphis
  99. Rice
  100. Bowling Green
  101. Middle Tennessee State
  102. Wyoming
  103. Western Michigan
  104. Louisiana-Lafayette
  105. Wake Forest
  106. Central Michigan
  107. New Mexico State
  108. Nevada-Las Vegas
  109. Buffalo
  110. North Texas
  111. Kansas
  112. Auburn
  113. Washington State
  114. New Mexico
  115. Eastern Michigan
  116. Western Kentucky
  117. Minnesota
  118. San José State
  119. Ball State
  120. Akron

Sunday, November 7, 2010

Auburn Holds Onto #1; TCU Climbs to #2

Not a lot of on-field drama for the Tigers this week. Unless Auburn loses, no one else will sniff the #1 slot.

Conference Rankings
1.Southeastern
.56832
2.Big 12
.56384
3.
Big Ten
.55560
4.
Pacific-10
.53298
5.
Atlantic Coast
.49485
6.
Mountain West
.48716
7.
Big East
.48566
8.
Western Athletic
.47271
9.
USA.46550
10.
Mid-American
.39081
11.
Sun Belt
.38220

The SEC has pulled ahead of the Big 12, and they likely will pull further ahead next week.
There are four undefeated teams left. Here are the records of the FBS opponents of the four:
  • Auburn 43-32 (.573)
  • Texas Christian 37-45 (.451)
  • Oregon 25-43 (.368)
  • Boise State 28-41 (.406)
There can be little doubt as to which team is #1 (if everyone is eligible, of course).
  1. Auburn
  2. Texas Christian
  3. Louisiana State
  4. Oregon
  5. Nebraska
  6. Boise State
  7. Michigan State
  8. Oklahoma State
  9. Iowa
  10. Stanford
  11. Wisconsin
  12. Ohio State
  13. Utah
  14. Missouri
  15. Alabama
  16. Mississippi State
  17. Arkansas
  18. Oklahoma
  19. Nevada
  20. Arizona
  21. Central Florida
  22. Kansas State
  23. Florida
  24. Hawaii
  25. Baylor
  26. South Carolina
  27. North Carolina
  28. Penn State
  29. North Carolina State
  30. Miami (Florida)
  31. Temple
  32. Michigan
  33. San Diego State
  34. Southern California
  35. Florida State
  36. Northern Illinois
  37. Fresno State
  38. Illinois
  39. Air Force
  40. Toledo
  41. East Carolina
  42. Pittsburgh
  43. Navy
  44. Maryland
  45. Tulsa
  46. Texas Tech
  47. Oregon State
  48. West Virginia
  49. Texas A&M
  50. Ohio
  51. Northwestern
  52. Clemson
  53. Southern Mississippi
  54. Iowa State
  55. Virginia Tech
  56. Texas
  57. Troy
  58. South Florida
  59. Syracuse
  60. UCLA
  61. Notre Dame
  62. California
  63. Miami (Ohio)
  64. Houston
  65. Southern Methodist
  66. Georgia Tech
  67. Brigham Young
  68. Louisville
  69. Kentucky
  70. Washington
  71. Army
  72. Georgia
  73. Texas-El Paso
  74. Rutgers
  75. Connecticut
  76. Purdue
  77. Boston College
  78. Arkansas State
  79. Colorado
  80. Marshall
  81. Indiana
  82. Louisiana-Monroe
  83. Cincinnati
  84. Alabama-Birmingham
  85. Idaho
  86. Tennessee
  87. Arizona State
  88. Colorado State
  89. Kent State
  90. Florida Atlantic
  91. Louisiana Tech
  92. Florida International
  93. Utah State
  94. Duke
  95. Virginia
  96. Vanderbilt
  97. Mississippi
  98. Tulane
  99. Rice
  100. Memphis
  101. Bowling Green
  102. Wyoming
  103. Western Michigan
  104. Middle Tennessee State
  105. Wake Forest
  106. Louisiana-Lafayette
  107. Central Michigan
  108. New Mexico State
  109. Nevada-Las Vegas
  110. Buffalo
  111. North Texas
  112. Kansas
  113. Washington State
  114. New Mexico
  115. Eastern Michigan
  116. Western Kentucky
  117. Minnesota
  118. San José State
  119. Ball State
  120. Akron